Showing all runs · outdoor vs. treadmill split automatically from GPS
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pace at the same heart rate · computed from second-by-second stream data
Pace at Same Heart Rate — Monthly
from per-second streams · warmup & stops excluded · faster = up
Analyzing heart-rate streams — fills in as data syncs from Strava…
Built from every second of running (first 5 min and stopped time excluded) — each line is the pace you actually held while your heart was in that band, not a run average. Downward trend = faster at the same effort — the clearest signal of aerobic adaptation.
Effort Curve — Pace at Each Heart Rate by Month
time-weighted pace per 5-bpm band, steady running only (HR transitions & recovery-jog lag filtered out) · greener = faster within the row · grey italic = modeled estimate
Showing all runs · use the toggles to switch venue or flip the axis
Aerobic Decoupling — Pace/HR Drift on Steady Runs ≥ 40 min
lower = more durable · under 5% = aerobic base holds
Decoupling measures how much your pace-to-heart-rate efficiency drifts between the first and second half of a steady run. Falling toward zero = a deeper aerobic base — you hold pace without your heart rate climbing. Negative values mean you actually got more efficient late (a well-fuelled negative split). Self-normalizing, so it's clean across heat and venue.
Projected Race Paces — Monthly
effort-curve trend, calibrated to your races · faster = higher
Each month's effort curve is extrapolated to your max heart rate for a VDOT, then calibrated to your actual race results — the effort curve alone reads ~13% slow because it's built from submaximal running, so it's scaled to match your real race VDOT (Daniels' model). The races set the level; the effort curve supplies the month-to-month trajectory. ★ marks your two half-marathons, which now land right on the line at their months — confirming the calibration.
Pace per Run + 10-Run Trend (≤ 10:00/mi · faster = higher)